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Cover -- Half-Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Illustrations -- Preface and Acknowledgements -- 1 Setting the Scene for 2015 -- 2 The Political Economy of Austerity -- 3 Policy Performance and Political Payoffs -- 4 The 2015 Campaign -- 5 Choosing to Vote and Choosing a Party -- 6 Explaining the Election Outcome -- 7 The Politics of Discontent: Britain's Emerging Multi-Party Politics -- Appendix: Measurement of Key Variables -- Bibliography -- Index

Der Autor diskutiert in seinem Beitrag die Rolle der Kosten für eine Konjunkturbelebung und die Kosten einer multikulturellen Politik als mögliche Grundlagen für eine Einwanderungsgebühr. (IAB)

THE LONG-STANDING CENTRALITY OF PARTY LEADERS TO CANADIAN ELECTIONS AND POLITICS, AND THE USE OF TELEVISED EXTRA-PARLIAMENTARY CONVENTIONS TO CHOOSE LEADERS, HAVE LED PARTIES TO BELIEVE THAT A NEW LEADER WILL PROVIDE THEM WITH AN ELECTORAL BOOST AT THE SUBSEQUENT ELECTION.THIS ARTICLE TESTS THIS PERCEPTION USING THE RECORD OF 136 CASES OF LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN CANADIAN PROVINCIAL PARTIES OVER THE LAST THREE DECADES. THE DATA ALLOW THE AUTHORS TO CONSIDER THE IMPACT OF DIVISIVE CONTESTS, THE RELEVANCE OF A PARTY'S COMPETITIVE POSITION, AND THE REGIONAL VARIANCE ON ANY LEADERSHIP CONVENTION ELECTORAL BOOST. IT CONCLUDES THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM IS WRONG.

1979-90 NATIONAL CROSS-SECTIONAL AND PANEL DATA IS USED TO INVESTIGATE HOW THE PUBLIC PERCEIVES CANADIAN MP'S REPRESENTATIONAL ACTIVITIES AND HOW THESE PERCEPTIONS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE OCCURRENCE AND OUTCOMES OF NATIONAL ELECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OCCURRENCE OF ELECTIONS AND IDENTIFICATION WITH THE WINNING NATIONAL PARTY POSITIVELY INFLUENCE THESE PERCEPTIONS, THE EFFECTS ARE MODEST AND, IN THE AGGREGATE, LARGE MAJORITIES OF CANADIANS EXPRESS RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE RESPONSIVENESS OF MPS. THAT STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF THE CANADIAN POLITICAL SYSTEM AND THE BREVITY OF PARLIMENTARY CAREERS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MPS TO DEVELOP IMAGES AS RESPONSIVE PUBLIC SERVANTS WHILE LEAVING THEM EXPOSED TO THE FREE-FLOATING DISCONTENT THAT CHARACTERIZES CANADIANS' FEELINGS ABOUT POLITICS AND POLITICIANS IS ARGUED.

ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE OLDLINE CANADIAN PARTIES, THE LIBERALS, WON A PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY IN THE 1993 NATIONAL ELECTION, TWO OTHERS, THE GOVERNING PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES (PC) AND THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP), SUFFERED DISASTROUS DEFEATS. TWO NEW PARTIES WITH REGIONALLY CONCENTRATED BASES OF SUPPORT, REFORM AND THE BLOC QUEBECOIS, ENJOYED MARKED SUCCESS. ANALYSES OF NATIONAL SURVEY DATA REVEAL THAT ALTHOUGH ECONOMIC ISSUES GENERATED BY A SERIOUS, PROTRACTED RECESSION WERE THE PRINCIPAL PROXIMATE FORCES ERODING PC AND NDP SUPPORT, DISSATISFACTION WITH ALL OLDLINE PARTIES WAS WIDESPREAD.

THE AUTHORS STUDY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PARTY POPULARITY FOR THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT OF MARGARET THATCHER IN GREAT BRITAIN. THEY ESTIMATE A POPULARITY FUNCTION THAT SHOWS THAT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT; PERCEPTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE; AND A VARIETY OF NON-ECONOMIC VARIABLES AND POLITICAL SHOCKS. THEY ALSO DEVELOP A MONETARY POLICY REACTION FUNCTION THAT SHOWS THAT THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT MANIPULATED THE MONEY SUPPLY IN ORDER TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY IN THE ELECTION YEAR. FINALLY, THEY ESTIMATE AN OUTCOME FUNCTION SHOWING THAT MONETARY POLICY HAD A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT. THE RESULTS DEMONSTRATE THAT THE CONSERVATIVES PURSUED A STRATEGY OF MANIPULATING THE ECONOMY FOR POLITICAL PROFIT IN A WAY CONSISTENT WITH THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE.

A popularity function is estimated which shows that government support was significantly influenced by inflation and unemployment; perceptions and expectations of economic performance; and a variety of non-economic variables and political shocks. A monetary policy reaction function is also estimated which shows that the Conservative government manipulated the money supply in order to stimulate the economy in the election year. An outcome function is estimated showing that monetary policy had a significant influence on inflation and unemployment. (Abstract amended)